Land Use/Cover Change Patterns at Micro Level

Societal demands for land in residential, commercial, and industrial uses are expected to continue to increase in the area as a result of growing populations, rising incomes as well as other land use classes exchange. A few case studies published in International Journal (Veldkamp, 2001) shows a consistent variation in explanatory variables of land use change drivers related to scale or level of analysis:

• At farm scale, land use is mostly influence by social and accessibility variables
• At landscape scale, topography and agroclimatic potentials determine land use changes
• At regional/national, the driving forces of land use change are climatic, macro-economic and demographic factors

Preliminary findings of land use changes pattern in Banyumas show that these changes are comparable with farm and landscape scale.

• The deforestation and forest degradation has been proceeding since 1990 and steadily unchanged from period 2000-2007. In the period of 1990-1995 deforestation is hugely occurred, and has converted more than 80% of forest area and is subsequently followed by land use exchange/shifting among different classes, mainly increasing of mix garden and plantation, settlement and paddy field areas. It seems that since 2005 deforestation is likely to stop and reach stability. (Finding 1).

• From 1995 onward, the trend of mix garden and plantation and dry-land agriculture changes are steadily declining. However, settlement and paddy field are still continues to increase, reaching at 23.54% and 48%  respectively in 2007 . The rate of change of mix garden and plantation is lower than that of dry land agriculture where closed to the paddy field and settlement areas. This may indicates that land use changes in flat areas most likely occurred as a result of settlement and paddy field expansion. There is possibility to stop the ongoing deforestation by keeping the remaining forest, and develop efficient and sustainable production system in the area that have been converted into production areas, such as plantation, mix garden and other temporary seasonal land uses (open field, brushwood). (Finding 2).

• In the area where forest designated as protected and conservation areas has been experiencing forest encroachment and changes for other uses. Limited activities from local communities inside protected and conservation areas (plantation, settlement ) have been observed, is steadily unchanged from 1995-2005. It may also indicates that the monitoring and enforcement are needed in those areas. (Finding 3)

The spatial dynamic pattern of land use/cover change in Banyumas region can be seen at district and village levels. Below is an overall picture of the change from 1990-2007.

A Comprehensive Baseline for Adaptation and Mitigation is urgently needed

Discussions during COP13 United Nations Framework of Climate Change(December 2007), as well as subsequent discussions on climate change issues, recognized that land use and land cover changes not only degraded local ecosystems, but also increased overall CO2 emissions. Therefore efforts to reduce the rapidity and extent of deforestation would lead to ‘avoided emissions,’ and the carbon credits earned as a result could then be traded on the international market for financial inflows to developing countries such as Indonesia.

The interaction between land use/land cover dynamics is poorly understood, particularly the interlinkages between agriculture uses and land use for energy production (such as biofuels). This is due to lack of an appropriate information baseline that requires the development of a new comprehensive approach linking the socioeconomic and institutional drivers of these changes.

There are a number challenges that influence land use changes, including energy production, forestry land conversion, sustainable patterns of production systems, risk and vulnerability assessment, urban governance, technology innovation etc., within the overall perspective of climate change. Of particular importance is the need for extensive and dependable monitoring of the extent of avoided land use/land cover changes across space and time.

The need for accurate information baselines is also driven by reporting requirements for creating a comprehensive Green House Gases inventory at the national level . The  the national level. Within the time frame of the implementation of the Post-Kyoto negotiations, the focus has shifted more to strategic initiatives in order to enable development of future scenarios and assessments, and negotiations for emerging needs of the potential carbon market.

There is a critical need therefore to focus on the changing patterns of sectors that contribute to GHG emissions, particularly CO². For developing countries such as Indonesia with vast natural resources, the potential for mitigating CO2 emissions from forest/land conversions is much higher, compared to other sectors such as manufacturing or other industry/business activities. In order to develop a truly comprehensive GHG inventory, the emissions of all GHGs from different sectors such as transportation, industry, agriculture etc. have to be computed. However, the proposed information baseline (which focuses on CO2 in the forestry sector) will be an initial step which will cover all GHGs and sectors.

Deputy of CIFOR to lead UN-REDD

Update on UN REDD

Last week, Angela Cooper, DED of UNEP, chaired a meeting of the Policy Board for UN REDD. The board reached agreement on many important issues, including its composition and rules of procedure. It was agreed that the Policy Board would comprise representatives of the 9 participating Member States, the three UN-REDD Agencies and Representatives of Civil Society and Indigenous Peoples.

The board also agreed to continue broadening the number of donors contributing to the Multidonor Trust Fund. In this regard representatives of the Danish government participated in the Policy Board meeting as observers.

The board was informed that we have now finalized the recruitment of the UN REDD Secretariat coordinator. Dr. Yemi Katerere, a Zimbabwean National currently Deputy Director General of the Centre for International Forestry Research (CIFOR) based in Indonesia, will take up his post in May 2009. Yemi brings to the Secretariat over 20 years experience in forest management, research and commercial forestry, including seven years as the Chief Executive of the Zimbabwe Forestry Commission and three years as Chair of the International Centre for Research in Agro – Forestry (ICRAF) Board of Trustees. For more information, please contact Ibrahim Thiaw Ibrahim.thiaw@unep.org

A need for Land Use/cover data improvement and enhancement at micro level

On average, most of the land cover map accuracy is less than 85% (Foody, 2002). IGBP global land cover map accuracy is 66,9% and the accuracy with which the individual classes are mapped ranging from 40% to 100%. On the other hand, overall classification of accuracy of 2007 LANDSAT imagery used is 76.67%.

Our assessment in Banyumas region shows a similar fashion. Therefore, a systematic, comprehensive and precise data collection and analysis at appropriate scale are required for precisely understanding the main driver of deforestation and developing a comprehensive policy and strategy package to overcome the declining of forest area as well as the environmental deterioration as a result of land use changes. As very little efforts have been made to systematically collect and adjust data in the study area on land cover/land use at appropriate scale, therefore more precise data acquisition and analysis are required.

• A Longer span of socio-economic data in the above same period are also needed to understand the socio-economic changes in some areas, especially to understand why in some areas deforestation/degradation are happening, while in other part are not.

• The LANDSAT imagery used in this assessment has a limitation in providing very detailed information. The data data do not yet have the ability to distinguish between the various characteristics of land use classes, especially land use classes within forest areas. Accuracy assessment of forest covers is the lowest(<50%) compare to other classes. The more of ground-based survey should be undertaken to calibrate the existing classification inside the forest areas.

• Four components that may influence in understanding forestry governance and its impact to land use and land cover changes.: (1). Social capital, covering socio, economic and institutional factors rooted in the community that may influence individual or community behavior and drive deforestation and land use change processes (2). Spatial dynamics, covering interactions among land use and ecosystem that influence spatial changes. (3). Wealth production systems, covering production systems employed in the area as a result of intensive interactions of technology and economic factors. It may operate as internal interaction or may be as a result of external influence. (4). Institutional intervention, covering Institutional changes, institutional factors that drive land use change, such as government policy on industry, tax and subsidy scheme for agriculture development, etc.

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ACCURACY TOTALS
Class       Reference    Classified    Number    Producers       Users
Name        Totals        Totals          Correct       Accuracy     Accuracy
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Hutan           13            10                 5              38.46%             50.00%
Mgrv             10            10               10            100.00%           100.00%
HLK                7            10                 5              71.43%             50.00%
Perkebunan   10           10                 6               60.00%           60.00%
Pmk     7                    10                 6                    85.71%          60.00%
Kc            13           10                 6                     46.15%            60.00%
Swh Irigasi          9           10                 4            44.44%            40.00%
Swh            9            10                9             100.00%                 90.00%
Tgl/Ldg         13            10                9               69.23%             90.00%
Smk/Blkr         8            10                8             100.00%            80.00%
Tnh Terbuka     11            10                9                81.82%        90.00%
Tmbk/Empang   9            10                8                88.89%        80.00%
Tbh Air          11           10                   10                90.91%       100.00%
Awan         10               10                    10               100.00%    100.00%
Byngan Awan       10            10              10               100.00%     100.00%
Totals                 150          150            115

Overall Classification Accuracy =     76.67%
—– End of Accuracy Totals —–
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Table 1. Accuracy Assessment of Land Cover Classification of 2007 Imagery

Forestry Governance and the Role of Decision Support Systems (DSS)

The Ministry of Environment (MoE), Government of Indonesia, organized a policy dialogue on forestry governance, entitled “The Bali Road Map in Perspective: Forestry Governance and the Role of Decision Support Systems (DSS)” in Jakarta on 28 March, 2008. The objective of the dialogue is to explore and share ideas on future cooperation in forestry governance and related issues under the Bali road map framework. The modalities of strengthening potential public and community stakeholders’ network to build capacity and to actively participate in local/global forestry governance, especially data and information for monitoring and assessment (issues that have also been identified as barriers to implementing the REDD scheme) was explored.

The following topics were presented during the meeting:

Bali Road Map and Forestry Governance [in Bahasa]

Towards Green Indonesia Program/MIH [in Bahasa]

REDD: Policy and Implementation Issues

Microscopic View of Forestry Governance

Open source base Decision Support Systems

Land Use/Cover Change Snapshots by Village in Banyumas Region (1990-2007)

Figure 1. Land Use and Land Cover 1992 by Village in Banyumas Region

Figure 2. Land Use and Land Cover 2000 by Village in Banyumas Region

Figure 3. Land Use and Land Cover 2005 by Village in Banyumas Region

Land Use/Cover Change Snapshots by District in Banyumas Region (1990-2007)

Figure 1. Land Use and Land Cover in 1990 derived based on Landsat Imagery

Figure 2. Land Use and Land Cover in 1995 derived based on Landsat Imagery

Figure 3. Land Use and Land Cover in 2000 derived based on Landsat Imagery

Figure 4. Land Use and Land Cover in 2005 derived based on Landsat Imagery

Figure 5. Land Use and Land Cover in 2007 derived based on Landsat Imagery

Baseline Information and Decision Support Systems(DSS)

A systematic, comprehensive and precise data collection and analysis at appropriate scale are required for precisely understanding main driver of deforestation and developing a comprehensive policy and strategy package to overcome the declining of forest area as well as the environmental deterioration as a result of land use changes.

This framework is developed to complete, calibrate existing available data and to model interrelationship among various factors above that influence as a basis to develop a model to understand the pattern in other region, especially in the outer islands of Java (Sumatra and Kalimantan).

Also, to facilitate scientific policy exercises to develop sustainable scenario options for resource management at macro and micro levels. Four components that may influence in understanding forestry governance:

• Social capital, socio, economic and institutional factors rooted in the community that may influence individual or community behavior and drive deforestation and land use change processes.
• Spatial dynamics, interactions among land use and ecosystem that influence spatial changes.
• Wealth production systems, production systems employed in the area as a result of intensive interactions of technology and economic factors. It may operate as internal interaction or may be as a result of external influence.
• Institutional changes, institutional factors that drive land use change, such as government policy on industry, tax and subsidy scheme for agriculture development, etc.

Above is a consolidated Forestry Governance and Decisions Support Systems Framework.

Environmental sound Technologies(ESTs) for Forestry Governance in Banyumas Region

The project, entitled, “Use of environmentally sound technologies (ESTs) in forestry waste management for disaster prevention in Indonesia” was initiated by the Ministry of Environment (MoE) in collaboration with UNEP’s International Environmental Technology Center (Osaka, Japan) from January 2006 to December 2007, in eight districts of the Banyumas region of Java, Indonesia.

The project aimed to implement ESTs to ensure sustainable forestry management and thus the growth of the local economy based on forest products and wastes. The project also sought to identify appropriate and sustainable solutions for the use of wastes from timber and non-timber production and services, and to design sound sustainable forest management practices and measures to prevent and mitigate the negative impacts of disasters such as flooding, landslides and on-going forest exploitation.

Under the project, assessment of potential environmental impacts of forestry waste management was Banyumas approach carried out. This included creation of a comprehensive database on existing condition and trends (covering social, economic and environmental aspects) in the Banyumas districts based on GIS and spatial/remote sensing data, especially on land use and land cover changes/deforestation.

Figure 1. Banyumas Approach

A policy gap analysis to promote forest waste management and thus contribute to disaster prevention and other socio-economic policy goals (including eco-tourism) was carried out with a set of recommendations for action to be undertaken at the national and local levels. Several ESTs applications were identified in the project area, including renewable energy systems (micro-hydro, solar), non-timber forest products processing units, compost processing unit and the use of organic fertilizers. Capacity building of the local government and local community to implement the policies and ESTs was an integral part of the project.

Figure 2. EST implementation in Banyumas region

While the project focused on forestry waste management and environmentally sound technologies, it brought to the fore, a number of key issues that are of particular relevance to us with respect to the thinking outlined above:

• Need for assessment of the change in forest cover using GIS maps, that are also complemented by a comprehensive micro-level ‘socio-economic mapping’ of the area, including land use patterns

• Need for a policy dialogue on forestry and related issues with local stakeholders from governmental and non-governmental entities, including local community leaders to identify the gaps in current policies

• Need to develop a variety of sustainability scenarios in order to expand local decision support systems, which fit into the ongoing process of decentralization and local governance of the Government of Indonesia.

• Need to identify economic alternatives, including agroforestry options, for local communities – where the income-generating potential of nearby forests is not lost as a result of avoided deforestation (for example, ecotourism or extraction of non-timber resources.

• Need to identify appropriate and environmentally sound technologies and techniques for sound forestry management and enhancement of income-generating potential of agro-forestry and nearby plantations, keeping in view the larger processes of industrial transformation that the region is experiencing.

• Need to understand the role of sound forestry management in climate change mitigation in general, and disaster risk reduction (flooding, silting, landslides, debris, et al.) in particular.

The emerging lesson from the project therefore was the need for a package of policies and strategies that encapsulated the above points, which was to be then replicated in other regions of the country, facing problems similar to those of the Banyumas district. This package, covering issues related to GIS and mapping, socio-economic analysis of the local situations, community involvement, and forestry governance itself, clearly points to the direction in which Indonesia will have to take in order to prepare itself for the climate change negotiations that will be initiated as a result of the Post-Kyoto follow-up to COP13 from 2008 to 2012.

Policy Dialogue on Decision Support System to Support Forestry Governance

The Ministry of Environment (MoE), Government of Indonesia, organized a policy dialogue on forestry governance, entitled “The Bali Road Map in Perspective: Forestry Governance and the Role of Decision Support Systems (DSS)” in Jakarta on 28 March, 2008. The objective of the dialogue is to explore and share ideas on future cooperation in forestry governance and related issues under the Bali road map framework. The modalities of strengthening potential public and community stakeholders’ network to build capacity and to actively participate in local/global forestry governance, especially data and information for monitoring and assessment (issues that have also been identified as barriers to implementing the REDD scheme) was explored.

A total of 40 participants from key stakeholders participated in this meeting, including relevant government agencies (Ministry of Forestry, Representatives from National Planning Agencies (BAPPENAS); international Organization (CIFOR, Wetland International and Donor Agencies (UNDP, World Bank), representative from the embassies in private companies, NGOs and universities.

The dialogue raised and reaffirmed the following issues and recommendations:

Macro Level

• National Action Plan Addressing Climate Change (NAPACC) clearly states that there is a need for the development of information that integrates all actions, purposes, targets and policies in all sectors.

• The comprehensive policy and strategy package to overcome deforestation should be introduce simultaneously that may include developing economic and financial instruments removing perverse subsidies that may drive land use change, providing positive incentives, strengthening direct regulation and governance mechanisms and institutions.

• The Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Industry and relevant agencies are suggested to be included into the picture of forestry governance initiatives in building consensus at national level.

Micro Level

• Lesson learnt from Banyumas region indicates that three levels of new land use regulation and control into the region as: (1). Setting goal of total land use change in the region (2). Land use regulation and controlling in the area that need to be protected and/or no more development/land use changes (3). Introducing a new land use regulation in the village areas.

• Provincial Government (cross-district authorities) should take lead in regulating land use across districts in the region.

• A consensus building should be established to introduce a new land use change regulation and controlling in conjunction with creation of incentives for production systems to be developed that may include economic incentives (credit access, technology, etc.) as well as inviting innovative ideas from village communities.

Presentations Materials:

• Workshop Agenda

• Introductory Message, Isa Karmisa, Deputy Minister, Ministry of Environment

• Bali Road Map and Beyond: The Role of MIH (Menuju Indonesia Hijau Program/Towards The Greening Indonesia) and REDD Initiative [1, 2], Masnellyarti Hilman, Deputy Minister, Ministry of Environment

• Forestry Governance under Bali Road Map: Assessment on Policy and Implementation Issues   Frances Seymour, [1, 2]Director General, Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR)

• Microscopic View of Forestry Governance: Research Findings from Banyumas, Tatsuro Sakano and Farhan Helmy, Dept. of Social Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology

• Open Source based Decision Support Systems, Data Exchange and   Deployment for Forestry Governance: Lesson Learnt from Banyumas,   Siti Aini Hanum, Hari Wibowo, Harimurti, Farhan Helmy